Intro
With just hours left to the Draft (just in time!) here is how I have my Top 50 stacked up. Instead of creating the standard and classic vertical rankings, I have created a “horizontal” ranking. In other words, the tier or level you are ranked at is way more important than the actual rank itself. Even if two players are 10 ranking spots apart, if they are within the same tier, they are nearly interchangeable. As such, the tiers of the board are relatively small and scrutinous.
Reference Explanation
I decided this year to boil every player down (in the Big Board) to the 4 most fundamental aspects of their profile – Size, Athleticism, Skill (as displayed on film), and Production (which can be seen in the stats). Every aspect is ranked within a 7-level ranking system:
SNO – Significant Negative Outlier
NO – Negative Outlier
B – Bad, relatively
AVG – Average
G – Good, relatively
PO – Positive Outlier
SPO – Significant Positive Outlier.
Additionally, I added an ECR column, so readers can compare my rankings with the Expert Consensus Ranking, per the 2023 Consensus Big Board on the Mock Draft Database website.
Let’s dive in!
Rankings
Tier 1 – Top 3 Pick Grade
Player and Scouting Reports
Bryce Young – Scouting Report
Bijan Robinson – Scouting Report
Will Anderson Jr. – Scouting Report
Anthony Richardson – Scouting Report
Reasoning
Anthony Richardson is the notable outlier here. As I detailed in my scouting report, he is the full package. Sure, he missed plenty of easy throws, but he has “Mahomesian” qualities that are rare. I truly believe his ceiling is to be the next Mahomes.
Tier 2 – Top 5 Pick Grade
Player and Scouting Reports
Deonte Banks – Scouting Report
Darnell Washington – Scouting Report
Reasoning
These two players are pretty similar. Both are elite, not quite elite enough to be Tier 1, but also a tier above Tier 2. They are both freakish unicorn athletes, who are much more skilled and polished than they are given credit for. They should both be superstars and are being criminally underrated in this Draft.
Tier 3 – Top 10 Pick Grade
Player and Scouting Reports
Tyree Wilson – Scouting Report
Jalen Carter – Scouting Report
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Scouting Report
Steve Avila – Scouting Report
Mazi Smith – Scouting Report
Reasoning
Jalen Carter is relatively low, but this is where the consensus has been starting to lean. He is a phenomenal player, but the red flags are starting to loom large.
Avila and Mazi Smith are names that you won’t see this high often, but both are outstanding players who play with position with athleticism and polish. The sky is the limit for both.
Tier 4 – Early 1st Round Grade
Player and Scouting Reports
Zay Flowers – Scouting Report
Christian Gonzalez – Scouting Report
Paris Johnson Jr. – Scouting Report
Devon Achane – Scouting Report
Devon Witherspoon – Scouting Report
Michael Mayer – Scouting Report
Reasoning
The two superstar Corners, Witherspoon and Gonzalez, are usually consensus Top 10 talents. To me, they are just out of that range. As I detailed in my reports, they each have a fatal flaw covering a full section of the route tree, and that flaw can be easily exploited in the NFL. Ironically, each one’s flaw is the strength of the other.
Flowers and Achane are the surprises here, likely due to their outlier size. While scouting, if a prospect is an outlier in some way, they must compensate by having elite on-field skill. The more extreme the outlier, the more the prospect needs to compensate. Flowers and Achane are both arguably the most skilled players in this Draft. They have unreal, jaw-dropping on-field talent, and if it weren’t for their outlier size they’d be much higher.
Tier 5 – Mid 1st Round Grade
Player and Scouting Reports
C.J. Stroud – Scouting Report
Joey Porter Jr. – Scouting Report
Dawand Jones – Scouting Report
Nolan Smith – Scouting Report
Emmanuel Forbes – Scouting Report
Myles Murphy – Scouting Report
Darnell Wright – Scouting Report
Reasoning
Stroud is certainly the headliner here. I think his ranking is all a matter of how convinced you are by the Georgia game. Honestly, I thought his preceding games were much more alarming than the general public did, but the Georgia game makes Stroud a true enigma. He would be higher, but the one game isn’t enough for me to bump him into the Top 10 range. Without that game, however, he’d be much lower, probably even one of my “bust” picks.
Jones and Forbes are usually not this high. Interestingly, both are severe size outliers at their positions, on polar opposite ends of the spectrum. Their weight works against them, but their great play can’t be overlooked.
Tier 6 – Late 1st Round Grade
Player and Scouting Reports
Quentin Johnston – Scouting Report
BJ Ojulari – Scouting Report
Calijah Kancey – Scouting Report
Will McDonald IV – Scouting Report
Reasoning
Johnston is all over the map across Big Boards within the Draft community. Some see him as an elite talent, and others have dropped him out of the first round entirely. The NFL seems to be dropping him as the days go by, but I think the slide has gone too far. Sure, there are questions, but he’s certainly worth a 1st-round pick, for his potential alone.
McDonald is a player I wish I could have put higher, but he has too many red flags on his card, I doubt his insane skill will translate.
Tier 7 – Early 2nd Round Grade
Player and Scouting Reports
Adetomiwa Adebawore – Scouting Report
Jahmyr Gibbs – Scouting Report
Jalin Hyatt – Scouting Report
Peter Skoronski – Scouting Report
John Michael Schmitz – Scouting Report
Bryan Bresee – Scouting Report
Will Levis – Scouting Report
Cody Mauch – Scouting Report
Reasoning
Hyatt is a polarizing player. Most don’t have him this high, but I think he has an exceptionally high floor, and with enough time he could develop into an elite weapon.
Levis is fun to place since his range is mind-numbing. You could legitimately have him as a Top 15 player, or have him outside the Top 50, both are reasonable. I think with his size and physical tools, and at his position, he deserves to be taken in the Early 2nd round, at the latest.
Mauch has fallen way down most Draft boards, but he is exceptionally raw at his likely position, and he was dominant at the position he played in college while being raw at that too. His potential and traits are too good to let him slip too far.
Tier 8 – Mid 2nd Round Grade
Player and Scouting Reports
Lukas Van Ness – Scouting Report
Drew Sanders – Scouting Report
Broderick Jones – Scouting Report
Anton Harrison – Scouting Report
Daiyan Henley – Scouting Report
Brian Branch – Scouting Report
Reasoning
Van Ness is getting hype as a potential Top 10 player in this Draft, which is wild to me. He is too much of a one-trick-pony, with red flags. There are plenty of players I’d select before him, as powerful as he may be.
Broderick Jones is a great athlete, sure, but his struggles on tape are under-discussed. He is an athletic, potential-type prospect, who is raw and unpolished, but he didn’t display elite athleticism at the Combine or on tape.
Brian Branch is another player who is getting hype as a Top 10 talent, and although his technical on-field skills match that, his size and athleticism are far from it. You can’t just play well to make it in the NFL, you have to be able to hang physically. Branch won’t bust, but his upside is extremely limited.
Tier 9 – Late 2nd Round Grade
Player and Scouting Reports
Cam Smith – Scouting Report
Jack Campbell – Scouting Report
Zach Charbonnet – Scouting Report
Julius Brents – Scouting Report
Dalton Kincaid – Scouting Report
Kendre Miller – Scouting Report
Joe Tippmann – Scouting Report
Keion White – Scouting Report
Jonathan Mingo – Scouting Report
Keeanu Benton – Scouting Report
Cedric Tillman – Scouting Report
Reasoning
Kincaid is one of my bolder calls in this draft. I think he is a receiver masking himself as a Tight End. I wouldn’t have him as a top receiver in this Draft, and since his blocking skills are non-existent (bordering on negative), I can’t have him much higher than this. If he can find a place that will utilize him properly, he can have a good career, but purely receiving Tight Ends that don’t block don’t last long.
Kendre Miller is another fascinating project. He has no on-field skills, but he has arguably the best physical tools of any Running Back in this Draft. His potential is sky-high, so he shouldn’t drop too far.
Notable Omissions
- Jordan Addison – Scouting Report
Addison is a size outlier, and he doesn’t have the athleticism to compensate. Although most think his skills compensate, I think his lack of toughness, paired with those flaws, is an impossible road-block to overcome. - O’Cyrus Torrence – Scouting Report
Torrence is just big. Sure, he looks like an NFL player, but he doesn’t play like one. - Hendon Hooker – Scouting Report
Hooker should have a long career as a backup, but with the hype he’s getting, there is no chance he meets the expectation of a 1st-Round Quarterback, assuring a swift end to what could be a comfortable long career. - Josh Downs – Scouting Report
Like Addison, Downs is too much of an outlier, without nearly the elite traits to compensate. - Kelee Ringo – Scouting Report
Ringo is a former top recruit who was never able to make it. Folks having him ranked highly are hanging on to the hope of what we thought he could be coming out of High School, but it’s time to accept he won’t get there. He was flatly not a good or reliable football player.
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